The Next 50 Years in Travel Analysis: What We Don'

Age

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-65

65+

Education

BA or BS

MA or MS

PhD

PE or other license

Employer

Job

How ACCURATE* should forecasts of demand be, for decision-making in… (eg, +- 5%, +- 10%, etc)

What ISSUES will our demand models likely need to address within the next decade? (1= not likely, 2= likely, 3= very likely)

Demographic/living patterns
Communications/internet/social nets
Immigration
Energy
Vehicle technology/self-driving cars
System operation
System maintenance
System expansion
Vehicle sharing
Non-motorized travel
Other? _____________
Other? ______________

What key KNOWLEDGE is needed to address issues? (1=not needed, 2= somewhat needed, 3 = definitely needed)

Household activities and decision-making
Regional/zonal population/land use trends
Pricing and value of time
How cities evolve
Externalities (energy, recession, etc)
Government policies
Technology advances
Other ?
Other ?

How should we PROCEED?

a.Your preferred approach: (1= less preferred, 2 = neutral, 3= most preferred )

REDUCE focus on models , relax model requirements, admit uncertainty
FACILITATE incremental improvements, with R&D funding at current levels
EXPAND model research, funding and application over the next 20-30 years (big push for transformative changes in travel modeling)

b.Details for each approach, if adopted: (1=less preferred, 2=neutral, 3= most preferred)
REDUCE focus on models

Track/report model accuracy/performance
Recognize optimism bias and take model results with a grain of salt
Reduce non-local funding shares
Repeal/reduce regulatory requirements for model forecasts
Other

FACILITATE incremental improvements

Track/evaluate model performance
Modest increases in funding for R&D
Clarify modeling ethics
Develop standards for model performance
Coordinate research efforts
Educate officials on model assumptions and limitations
Other______________________________________________